Thinking, Fast and Slow [Текст].
D. Kahneman

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 3

PART I. TWO SYSTEMS
1. THE CHARACTERS OF THE STORY 19
2. ATTENTION AND EFFORT 31
3. THE LAZY CONTROLLER 35
4. THE ASSOCIATIVE MACHINE 50
5. COGNITIVE EASE 59
6. NORMS, SURPRISES, AND CAUSES 71
7. A MACHINE FOR JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS 79
8. HOW JUDGMENTS HAPPEN 91
9 ANSWERING AN EASIER QUESTION 97

PART II HEURISTICS AND BIASES
10 THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 109
11 ANCHORS OF AVAILABILITY 119
12 THE SCIENCE OF AVAILABILITY 129
13 AVAILABILITY EMOTION AND RISK T32
14 TOM W'S SPECIALTY T37
15 LINDA LESS IS MORE T46
16 CAUSES TRUMP STATISTICS T56
17 REGRESSION TO THE MEAN T73
18 TAMING INTUITIVE PREDICTIONS T85

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PART III. OVERCONFIDENCE
19. THE ILLUSION OF UNDERSTANDING 199
20. THE ILLUSION OF VALIDITY 209
21. INTUITIONS VS. FORMULAS 227
22. EXPERT INTUITION: WHEN CAN WE TRUST IT? 234
23. THE OUTSIDE VIEW 245
24. THE ENGINE OF CAPITALISM 253

PART IV. CHOICES
25. BERNOLLI'S ERRORS 269
26. PROSPECT THEORY 278
27. THE ENDOWMENT EFFECT 290
28. BAD EVENTS 300
29. THE FOURFOLD PATTERN 312
30. RARE EVENTS 324
31. RISK POLICIES 342
32. REVERSALS 353
33. FRAMES AND REALITY 363

PART V. TWO SELVES 377

35. TWO SELVES 377

36. LIFE AS A STORY 386
37. EXPERIENCED WELL-BEING 398
38. THINKING ABOUT LIFE 401

CONCLUSIONS 408

APPENDIX A: JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY 419
APPENDIX B: CHOICES, VALUES, AND FRAMES 439

NOTES 443

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 483

INDEX 485